Ignore Warning Signs at Our Mutual Peril
This blog typically focuses on business leadership topics related to what I call organizational tangles. Today I focus on a different type of tangle, a Cascade Tangle, and one that might well ensnare us all. Cascade Tangles are a multi-system mess that like dominoes, result in a cascade of failure. The recent financial meltdown appears to be a result of the failure of multiple systems, and like a house of cards, may still be on the brink of collapse.
In last Sunday’s New York Times opinion section, Sandy B. Lewis and William D. Cohan wrote an op-ed piece with 72 font headers. Its title, “The Economy Is Still at the Brink” grabbed me.
Lewis is an organic farmer who was convicted of stock manipulation and later pardoned. Cohan, formerly a Wall Street banker, has written extensively about the financial crisis. Bottom-line, they make a very strong and persuasive argument that all efforts to “fix” the economy are in reality papering over real and structural problems.
Their proposed solution is to tear down the current system and build a new one that really works. We need more transparency and to fundamentally change our consumption habits. Restoring our confidence, they write, will not be enough to restore a broken financial system.
Lewis and Cohan raise some important and probing questions. Again, their opinion piece, interspersed with gigantic font, is surely a wake-up call. Will any of us listen?
What I know from my own experience and research is that we ignore clear warning signs at our own peril. It would be all too easy for all of us to expect a return to how things were before September 15, 2008. Lewis and Cohan’s points are unsettling and my first reaction was discomfort. It was a truth that I didn’t want to hear. However, burying my head in the sand is not an option. None of us can afford to do that.
We are all enmeshed in this potential Cascade Tangle. I plan to write letters to the editor and my state Senators. Will you all join me and do the same?
©Marcia Ruben, Ph.D., Ruben Consulting Group
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Comments
Another sign of dominoes falling that can hurt us is the recent announcement that the Feds will ‘let’ banks pay back TARP loans, and the announcement of a ‘Salary Czar.’ The banks then WANT to pay back the money. Why? Because they don’t want the Feds looking into them any closer than they already have, which isn’t close enough.
No fixes there, unless you are the kind that goes Wink-wink, nod-nod, and say “The fix is in!”
As usual, you have so added to the conversation, Bart. As we sit back and witness all of this, I wonder what we can collectively do to stop the usual shenanigans. Any thoughts?
The type of tangle you describe goes the term of art, “Event Cascade” in the world of accident and disaster investigation. It describes separate events, which, when they happen together, create a chain that leads to a catastrophe. The problem with Event Cascades is that they’re impossible to predict with any certainty, but very clear in hindsight.
Wally, thanks so much for that additive thought and information. I will definitely look into that. One of the chapters in my book will cover Cascade Tangles. I wonder if the warning bells being sounded now by Lewis and Cohan will be heeded.
Powerful word picture you give: “Cascade Tangles are a multi-system mess that like dominoes, result in a cascade of failure.” What a profound way to describe the mess many organizations get themselves into. I look forward to reading more as you elaborate on this concept! Realizing that everything a leader does trickles down affecting everyone not only in an organization, but in their life, is a principle to few are paying attention to these days.
Sue, thanks so much for your comment. I agree that what leaders say and do has a profound impact.
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