Leadership Tangles Blog

According to a November 2008 McKinsey study, 22% of over 1400 executives from a cross-section of industries, geographies, and functional areas anticipate that they will be seeking merger and acquisition opportunities. That is, those companies that are still in fairly good financial shape will take advantage of opportunities to purchase complimentary companies at a lower price than usual.

When times are tough, it is human nature to batten down the hatches. However, when business is reduced to just a set of metrics and numbers without consideration to the human side of business, growth and productivity are unintentionally squelched. Several years ago some colleagues and I were making a sales pitch to the CEO of a large chemical manufacturing company set to make major large-scale change. We argued that there was a need to manage the human side of the change in order to get the desired return on investment. The CEO remarked that his employees would just have to "get over it." Fortunately, we were able to persuade the CEO and CFO that they could not afford to be distracted by employees who were not on board and aligned with the desired changes.

It's official. The United States is in a recession, and has been for a year, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. And for many I have spoken to, this recession feels very different from past ones. I believe that the difference is the level of VUCA, or volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity. Regular readers of my blog know that I have posted a number of blogs on the topic. Simply put, VUCA is like an E ticket ride at Disneyland , in dense fog, with a stuck stop/start gear.

Several years ago, I was on a cross-country flight. The pilot came on and told us that we were going to encounter some turbulence. He explained that we were going through a patch of rough air that was akin to being on top of pot of boiling water. He went on to say that he and the copilot were committed to finding calmer air space. As I recall, he explained that the bumpiness would last about 15 minutes. During that time, we could expect the ride to be quite bumpy. Having a clear picture of what was happening, why, and how long it would last certainly helped relieve the collective passenger anxiety.

This morning's San Francisco Chronicle featured a story in remembrance of the Jonestown massacres thirty years ago. In the front page article, Congresswoman Jackie Spier recalls her trip to Jonestown with Congressman Leo Ryan . For the past several weeks, the daily financial news has been grimmer and grimmer. Business leaders are faced with rising costs, uncertain revenue projections, and a shortfall of cash and credit.

Volatility is the first aspect of a VUCA environment. Uncertainty is the second. Today’s economic environment is volatile. Yesterday, the stock market rose to 800 points or 10% in spite of gloomy news about the economic outlook. Consumer confidence is down, the housing market continues to slide, yet federal money is beginning to flow. The future is indeed uncertain.

More than ever, not everything is knowable to an organization’s leaders. Owen Jacobs, who I referred to in yesterday’s post, argues that leaders may have all of the important elements of a situation but may not be able to connect all of the dots. The information may be coming from the outside environment, or within the organization. Therefore, in order to help their organizations connect the dots, leaders need to design their organizations so that information can more easily turn into knowledge, and that knowledge can be acted upon quickly.

In yesterday's post, I made reference to the term VUCA. VUCA stands for volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity. Executive leaders have been increasingly challenged with VUCA, but in today's market, more so than ever. In the past six weeks, it feels like we have been collectively on an “E” ticket ride, although not at Disneyland! As the stock market has risen and fallen at dizzying levels, and with the credit markets in a vise, we have held our collective breaths. The business leaders I have spoken to or visited are struggling to make sense of the situation. Today, I will address the “V” in volatility.

Welcome! I have been meaning to write a blog for a long time. As I have watched the financial markets spin out of control, and my leadership clients express true concern about their futures, I could hold off no longer. I have been in the field of leadership and organizational development for a number of years. I am in this field because I am passionately committed to igniting leadership potential and organizational transformation. Six years ago, I decided to up my game by entering a doctoral program. I graduated with my Ph.D. in March, 2007. Through that intense process, combined with more than twenty-five years working with leaders in a multitude of corporations, small, medium, and large, I feel uniquely equipped to lend my voice to these troubled times.